Counter-Drone Technologies Could Become The Next Hot Market And Here Is Why
While most people associate UAVs (drones) with warfare and Jeff Bezos’ grand ambition of delivering Amazon packages, demand for personal drones have already created a multi-billion dollar market.
According to Gartner, drone sales are expected to reach $6 billion this year with 3 million drones (+50% on y-o-y basis) expected to be shipped. Personal drones currently count for c.60% of the total drones sales and will become increasingly popular for entertainment purposes, including taking selfies. Moreover, the commercial application areas are vast. Drones can be used to deliver packages (Amazon’s big aspiration) or re-plant forests, causing disruption across sectors. All these positive drivers seem to validate FAA forecast of 7 million drones flying in the US by 2020.
The sustained demand for personal drones and the vast array of commercial applications mean that the number of drones will inevitably increase drastically over the coming years.
It is no surprise to note that regulation is not sufficient as with any technological innovation. In the US, arguably one of the largest drones markets, an existing federal law prohibits the FAA from enacting new rules regarding model aircraft, including drones, leading to insufficient regulation. Moreover, it is difficult to implement any meaningful regulation. Authorities may use measures such as forcing new drone owners to register their drones and creating no-fly zones. However, how can they realistically mitigate misuse?
How can we stop the post-drone world from turning into a modern Wild West?
With drones going mainstream and lack of regulation (and practical ways to enforce it), it is inevitable that some people will use them to commit crimes and drones will pose a public safety threat. They are already being used to smuggle drugs in jails. In the near future, terrorists could adapt personal drones to carry out horrific attacks. They could also be used by burglars to scout empty properties, commit corporate espionage etc.
In a post-drone world, drone security becomes a primary concern.
In a post-drone world, counter-drone technologies will become imminent. Police would need to secure airspace above premises that may be potential targets. Property owners would require measures to secure their privacy. For property owners, anti-drone technology will become part of their home/building alarm system in the future.
The TAM for counter-drone technologies is much larger than currently anticipated with potential buyers including police forces across the globe and property owners.
Given the potential for a large-scale opportunity, the drone security market is surprisingly nascent. Current anti-drone measures used by the police are not scalable. As an example, Dutch police has been reported to train eagles to take down drones. US police force has been experimenting with jamming devices. However, there is a blanket ban on jamming devices, imposed by the FCC, as drones are classified as aircraft. Jamming devices could become a widespread solution if the technology becomes more precise and the regulation is changed. Given these more or less improvised solutions, there seems to be a clear need for anti-drone technology — at least from the side of the police forces.
According to Mike Blades, Aerospace and Defense Analyst with Frost and Sullivan, at least 70 companies are working on various types of counter-drone systems. I have listed selected players with promising ideas/technologies below.
- Dedrone (www.dedrone.com) — Founded in 2014, a provider of an automated drone security platform that detects, classifies and mitigates all drone threats. In 2017, It raised c. $15 million in Series B funding from investors including Felicis Ventures, bringing total funding to c. $28 million.
- Airspace (airspace.co) — Founded in 2015, a provider of drone security solution capable of identifying, tracking, and autonomously removing rogue drones from the sky. However, this approach is limited as the interceptor only catches one drone at a time (according to a Fortune article). In 2016, it received $5 million in seed funding with investors including Granite Ventures and Shasta Ventures.
- SkySafe (www.skysafe.io) — Founded in 2015, a provider of a system that can take control of a rogue drone over the air and safely land it. In 2016, the company has received $3 million in seed funding with Andreessen Horowitz as lead investor.
- DroneShield (www.droneshield.com) — Founded in 2015, a publicly listed provider of drone detection technology solutions including omnidirectional sensors, long-range sensors, drone guns and drone shield user interface. Current market cap of c.$10m.
I personally believe that drones will have a positive impact on our society. However, the commercial applications can only be successful if the drones are not perceived as dangerous by the wider population. In order to achieve this goal, tech startups in the drone security space will play a crucial role and will accelerate mainstream adoption.
Originally published at https://www.linkedin.com on July 13, 2017.
